The tech industry is currently at a pivotal turning point, with a battle for supremacy over AI (Artificial Intelligence) chips, a surge in prices due to supply constraints, and increasingly complex geopolitical risks.
The major news observed in November is not just a temporary trend, but a signal that will determine the direction of technological developments in digital infrastructure and manufacturing over the next few years. This article provides an overview of the major developments in the semiconductor industry in November from five different perspectives.
1. opposition to “NVIDIA monopoly” and supply chain restructuring
NVIDIA continues to reign as the absolute king of the AI chip market with record sales and profits in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. The company has deepened its partnerships with Korean companies such as Samsung and SK Group, and is driving AI in industry by supplying more than 250,000 chips.
However, a siege by giant hyperscalers (CSPs) is being formed against this “one-power system.
- Google & Meta moves: Meta is considering adopting Google TPUs in the future; Google itself announced its 7th generation TPU “Ironwood”; a new supply chain (“anti-NVIDIA alliance”) involving Broadcom, Taiwan’s GUC, and others is being formed; and a new “NVIDIA alliance” is being formed. and others.
- Strengthening the ASIC Ecosystem: NVIDIA itself is not sitting idly by and is putting up a line of defense by strengthening its ASIC design ecosystem through its massive investment in Synopsys.
2. price revision and capex competition at TSMC
The move by TSMC, a giant in the foundry market, directly affects the cost structure of the entire industry.
- Price increase: With “huge” demand for advanced processes, TSMC expects to raise advanced chip prices by up to 10% starting in 2026.
- Increased Capital Expenditures: Capital expenditures (CapEx) in 2026 are projected to approach approximately $50 billion as the industry works around the clock to increase CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) production capacity. This strongly suggests that cost increases may be passed on to final product prices.
Meanwhile, Intel is promoting its foundry business under its IDM 2.0 strategy, but the company is also facing sparks in the competition for talent, including allegations that it is poaching engineers from TSMC and an investigation by Taiwanese authorities.
3. arrival of a “super cycle” in the memory market
The DRAM and NAND markets have entered a “once-in-a-decade super cycle” due to special AI demand.
- Price spike: DDR5 spot prices soared 30% due to tight supply; NAND prices have also doubled in six months, with Phison CEO warning of multi-year supply shortages.
- Samsung’s strategy: Aiming for a profit margin of over 70%, Samsung is accelerating its concentrated investment in highly profitable memory for AI (e.g., HBM4), including the conversion of NAND production lines to DRAM.
- Impact: This price increase has already begun to affect the cost of shipping PCs and smartphones.
4. geopolitical risks and national projects: China’s domesticization vs. Japan’s Rapidus
The struggle for technological hegemony between the U.S. and China is further deepening the fragmentation of the supply chain.
- China: The government is reportedly leading a “de-NVIDIA” initiative, requiring ByteDance and other companies to use domestically produced chips. In addition, problems surrounding Nexperia (Ansei Semiconductor) are causing concern about depletion of inventory due to wafer supply stoppages, forcing automakers and others to seek alternative solutions.
- Japan: Rapidus plans to build a second plant in Hokkaido in anticipation of the start of 1.4nm process production in 2029. A national “semiconductor revival” is taking shape, including additional support from the government, operation of a new building by Fujifilm and other materials suppliers, and construction of a GAA pilot line by AIST.
5. next generation technology: advanced packaging and the rise of CPO
In order to exceed the limits of Moore’s Law (actually Denard’s Law), the axis of competition is shifting from “miniaturization” to “packaging.
- Packaging investment: ASE and others are making huge capital investments, and Qualcomm and AMD are introducing next-generation products (Snapdragon X2, Instinct MI400, etc.) with the aim of expanding their share of the AI chip market.
- Photoelectric Convergence (CPO): To dramatically improve the power efficiency of AI data centers, CPO technology, which combines electricity and light, is being commercialized, and TSMC and others are increasing their outreach in this area.
Summary] Return to Physical Infrastructure and Sustainability of Investment
To sum up this month’s news, the AI boom has moved beyond mere software frenzy to a phase in which securing “physical infrastructure (AI factories)” and “manufacturing capacity” is the essence of competition.
As the NVIDIA CEO points out, the first priority is to build the physical infrastructure, but at the same time, Wall Street is concerned about “AI debt risk” for the huge investments of Amazon, Oracle, and others.
